Report by Paula Antolini, August 20, 2021, 2:14PM EDT
The National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook for Northern Fairfield, Southern CT, for Friday, August 20, 2021, reports a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for this afternoon and tonight into Thursday.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria.
Hurricane Local Statement
Tropical Storm Henri Local Statement Advisory
This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut
**HENRI IS FORECAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT**
NEW INFORMATION
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Bronx and Northern Queens
– A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London
– A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Fairfield
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Bronx and Northern Queens
– A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for Northern Nassau, Southern Nassau, Southern Westchester, and Southern Fairfield
– A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London
– A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Northeast Suffolk, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, and Southwest Suffolk, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London
– A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Fairfield
* STORM INFORMATION:
– About 720 miles south of New York City NY or about 740 miles south of Montauk Point NY
– 30.4N 73.7W
– Storm Intensity 65 mph
– Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 7 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
Tropical Storm Henri is currently due east of the South Carolina coastline and will likely track north nearing eastern Long Island and into southern New England Sunday as a Category 1 Hurricane.
The main threats from Henri are potentially life-threatening storm surge, heavy rain capable of producing flash flooding, tropical storm or hurricane force winds along the south shore and east end of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut. There will also be associated marine and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and dangerous rip currents.
Severe beach erosion is possible for coastal areas of Long Island Sound and portions of Suffolk County, including the Twin Forks region.
A widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is forecast in the path of Henri with localized higher amounts possible Saturday through Sunday evening. The highest amounts are forecast to be across eastern Long Island and much of southeastern Connecticut. This will present a likelihood for areas of flash flooding.
Dangerous marine conditions are likely on the ocean waters south of Long Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most likely in those areas, near the south shores and east end of Long Island and southeast Connecticut, and in some higher elevations away from the coastline. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected along the ocean beaches of Long Island beginning Friday.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts across eastern Long Island and southern Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include:
– Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
– Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
– Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
– Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited impacts across southern New York and northeast New Jersey.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across coastal Long Island, the Western Long Island Sound, and southern Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include:
– Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
– Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road.
– Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip currents.
– Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
Elsewhere across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, little to no impact is anticipated.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across eastern Long Island and southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
– Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues.
– Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and may overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
– Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across southern New York and northeast New Jersey.
* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the center of the storm.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.
Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county where you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors.
Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
– For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
– For information on creating an emergency plan see http://getagameplan.org
– For additional disaster preparedness information see http://redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in New York NY around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
*****
Tropical Storm Watch
Henri Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory
National Weather Service New York NY
1117 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
Northern Fairfield-
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT…
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
– Danbury
– Ridgefield
– Trumbull
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58m to 73 mph
– The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
– PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force.
– PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
– ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
– Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
– Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over.
– Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
– Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
– No storm surge inundation forecast
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm surge flooding
– The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
– PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding. Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible.
– PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding are needed.
– ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor forecasts.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
– Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
– Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain
– The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
– PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain.
Evacuations and rescues are possible.
– PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
– ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
– Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues.
– Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and may overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
– Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADO
– LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
– Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
– THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
– The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
– PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur.
– PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation.
– ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
– Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
– https://ready.gov/hurricanes
*****
Detailed Forecast
This Afternoon
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. North wind 3 to 5 mph.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then showers likely after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 80.
###