Caribbean Sea — Tropical Storm Melissa is moving at an agonizingly slow pace, covering only about two miles per hour — slower than the average walking speed — as it drifts through the Caribbean. Forecasters warn the storm could strengthen into a major hurricane in the coming days while lingering over extremely warm waters, creating the potential for torrential rainfall and flooding.
Meteorologists say Melissa’s slow motion is the result of weak steering winds and a lack of influence from surrounding weather systems, such as cold fronts or jet stream dips, which normally guide tropical storms.
“When those influences are weak or absent, as is the case with Melissa, a storm can meander for days,” experts said, “dumping torrential amounts of rainfall on anyone unlucky enough to be nearby.”
Perfect Conditions for Intensification
The Caribbean Sea currently holds some of the hottest water temperatures anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean — prime fuel for hurricane development. According to meteorologist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the region’s “potential intensity is quite elevated compared to the 1979–2023 average.”
“There has not been much storm activity in the Caribbean so far this year due to strong upper-level winds,” Emanuel noted, “but now conditions are expected to be primed for Tropical Storm Melissa to keep at its snail’s pace.”
As CNN reports, slow movement and calm upper-level winds can actually help storms rapidly intensify, increasing the risk that Melissa could reach Category 3 hurricane strength or higher.
Are Hurricanes Slowing Down?
Scientists say there is growing evidence that tropical storms and hurricanes are moving more slowly than in previous decades, particularly when approaching or making landfall. This trend could have devastating consequences, as slower-moving systems tend to dump more rainfall and cause severe flooding.
Research from hurricane expert James Kossin and his colleagues has identified a global slowdown in tropical cyclone speeds, especially in the North Atlantic.
“These observed changes have not yet been confidently linked to human-caused climate change,” said meteorologist Kieran Bhatia of Guy Carpenter, “but they are consistent with expectations from global warming.”
Some studies suggest these slower speeds are related to changes in upper-level air circulation, which align with climate models projecting a weaker atmospheric flow in a warming world.
Other researchers caution that the connection between climate change and hurricane speed is still being investigated, though many agree the impact of slow-moving storms is already clear: more rain, higher flood risk, and longer exposure to storm surge.
Flooding Risks for Jamaica and Hispaniola
As Melissa lingers, it poses a significant flooding threat to Jamaica and Hispaniola, where tall mountains can enhance rainfall by forcing moist air upward. With the storm expected to hover near land for days, experts warn of potential catastrophic rainfall totals across parts of the Caribbean.
“Any tendency to slow down, like the crawling forward speed of Tropical Storm Melissa, has huge implications for impacts because it allows such storms to dump heavier rainfall totals over land,” researchers said.
Even without a confirmed link to climate change, scientists agree that today’s tropical storms produce more rainfall than in past decades because of warmer oceans and air temperatures, which allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture.
One example was Hurricane Harvey in 2017, which dumped more than 60 inches of rain on southeastern Texas — the highest total ever recorded from a U.S. tropical cyclone. Melissa’s path and speed raise concerns it could behave similarly on a regional scale.
A Developing Threat
Forecasters will continue to monitor Melissa’s progress as the storm drifts through the Caribbean with little steering influence. If it strengthens further, Melissa could bring life-threatening flooding and landslides to vulnerable areas in the days ahead.
What are your thoughts on the increasing trend of slower tropical storms and hurricanes? Share your views in the comments below.
