San Antonio, TX — This October has been anything but typical across the Lone Star State. A persistent high-pressure system has kept cold fronts from moving in, leaving much of Texas under unseasonably warm conditions. As a result, the state is on pace to record one of its hottest Octobers ever.
Record-Breaking Heat Across the State
So far this month, San Antonio has averaged a high temperature of 92°F, ranking as the city’s second-hottest start to October in history. Austin has been even warmer, with an average high of 93.8°F, marking one of its hottest Octobers on record.
The heat hasn’t been limited to Central Texas. Houston and Dallas are both averaging highs above 90°F, putting them on track for top-five warmest Octobers in their respective weather histories. In Abilene, it’s the second-hottest start to October, while Lubbock is experiencing its sixth-hottest.
Will the First Freeze Be Delayed?
Historically, San Antonio’s first freeze occurs around November 30. But what happens when October is unusually hot? To answer that, meteorologists reviewed the 20 warmest Octobers in San Antonio’s history.
On average, the first freeze during those years arrived around December 7, about a week later than normal, according to the reports.
This pattern appears consistent across much of Texas:
- Dallas: First freeze shifts from Nov. 22 to Nov. 28
- Houston: Delayed roughly a week, to Dec. 15
- Lubbock: Typically freezes by Oct. 31, but warm falls can push that into early November
While a warm October doesn’t guarantee a late freeze, history suggests it tends to delay the first freeze by nearly a week in most regions.
La Niña’s Role in a Warmer Winter
The warm trend may extend beyond October. Meteorologists say La Niña is currently active, and that typically means warmer and drier winters for Texas.
La Niña forms when cooler waters in the Pacific Ocean create a blocking high-pressure system between Hawaii and Alaska. This system pushes the polar jet stream farther north, keeping strong cold fronts from reaching Texas.
Because of this, many areas in Texas could see fewer freezes overall this winter. On average:
- San Antonio records about 14 freezing days per year
- Houston averages 10
- Dallas sees around 29
- Amarillo experiences a chilly 108 days below 32°F annually
This year, those numbers could drop slightly if the current warm pattern continues.
Do you think Texas winters are getting warmer every year? Share your thoughts and observations in the comments below.
