Report by Paula Antolini, May 16, 2022, 2:50PM EDT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
Overview:
–The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts that a line of thunderstorms is expected ahead of and along a strong cold front this afternoon into tonight.
–Numerous thunderstorms could become severe, and potentially significant, with damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, NWS says.
Timing:
–Thunderstorm chances start at 1PM, ending around 9PM.
–Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, Western Long Island, Fairfield County CT, thunderstorms generally between 2 and 7PM. (Timing could be 1-2 hours off)
–Eastern Long Island, Southern CT New Haven County to New London County, thunderstorms generally between 6 and 9PM. (Timing could be 1-2 hours off)
Hazards ans Impacts:
—Damaging Wind: Wind gusts in excess of 58 mph could damage trees and
power lines and result in scattered power outages.
—Large Hail: 1 inch hail could result in minor damage to motor vehicles.
—Tornadoes: An isolated tornado possible.
—Heavy Rainfall: Marginal flash flood risk, localized flooding of urban, poor
drainage areas, quick responding small streams and creeks possible.
NWS Alerts:
–SPC-> Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather.
–Watches and warnings issued if threat increases for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes if rotation appears in severe thunderstorms.
–Flooding possible, but mostly minor which if expected, then flood advisories would be issued, greater flooding threat would warrant flash flood warnings.
Forecast Challenges:
–Coverage of discrete storms ahead of the line of more organized storms.
–Thunderstorms generally expected to weaken as they move farther eastward
across Long Island and Southern CT, encountering cooler marine air. Exactly
when and how fast thunderstorms weaken is uncertain.
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Detailed Forecast
This Afternoon
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 77. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 11pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. Low around 52. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 71. West wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West wind 6 to 11 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 69. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 71.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 79.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Saturday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
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