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NWS Forecast for Tri-State Region: Rain and Wind Continues into Friday, Temps in 50’s, Coastal Flooding

Report by Paula Antolini, October 9, 2019, 7:09PM EDT

The National Weather Service weather summary for the Local Tri-State Region for October 9, 2019:

Low pressure off the coast of Long Island will result in a period of unsettled weather over the next few days.

Bands of light to moderate rain will continue into the early part of the evening before diminishing after sunset. However, rain chances increase again by daybreak lasting into Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is forecast east of the New York City metro, with lower amounts to the west across the interior.

In addition to the rain, gusty northeast winds will increase as the offshore low strengthens and the pressure gradient tightens.

Wind gusts of 35-45 mph, possibly around 50 mph across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut, are expected Thursday into Thursday night with the greatest impacts expected along the coast, generally from NYC east.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday.

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Detailed Forecast for Northern Fairfield

Tonight

Cloudy. Rain likely, mainly this evening. Near steady temperature in the upper 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday

Rain. Highs in the mid 50s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday Night

Cloudy. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Lows in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the upper 50s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain, mainly in the evening. Lows around 50. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Sunday

Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.

Columbus Day

Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows around 50.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

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DESPP/DEMHS OCEAN STORM UPDATE / 2:00 PM October 9th, 2019 / HAZARDS AT CLOSEST APPROACH THURS PM / 2‐DAY GFS AND NAM MODEL FORECASTS

LARGE OCEAN STORM WILL IMPACT CONNECTICUT WITH SOME WIND,
WAVES ALONG THE COAST AND RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY…NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ISSUED AT THIS TIME…

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking a disturbance off the coast of the Carolina’s that has a 20% chance for tropical development during the next 2 days. The NHC has not issued any official forecasts for this disturbance at this time.

The GFS and NAM computer models are forecasting (see map far right) that this disturbance will merge with a low pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast. The combined storm is forecast to intensify and move to the northeast during the next 24 hours. The ocean storm is then forecast
to slow down and turn toward the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Although the storm is not expected to make landfall, the wind, rain, tides and waves from this storm are forecast to impact Connecticut and southern New England.

Based on the current computer track forecasts, we are currently expecting a long duration high end minor impact from winds, tides, waves and rain from this evening until Friday morning. More specifically the models are forecasting moderate north northeast winds at 20 – 25 MPH with gusts to 35 – 45 MPH especially along the coast (see graph to the right) from this evening until Friday evening with a total of 1” – 3” of total rainfall. The ground is fairly dry which should prevent significant flooding.

Tides are currently astronomically low which should also help prevent significant coastal flooding. However, widespread minor coastal flooding is still likely to occur as the north northeast winds begin to stack water up in Long Island Sound with each progressive tide cycle. The highest of the tide cycles are currently expected to occur Thursday evening and Friday morning with storm surges of 2 – 3 feet above normal high tide and waves between 4 – 7 feet in Long Island Sound. These tides and waves will likely cause high end minor flooding of low lying areas with a few locally moderate impacts. Some tree limbs may be downed and some power outages may occur, especially along the coast. The storm is forecast to move slowly away from our area this weekend.

The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to closely monitor this approaching storm. However, this will be the only update unless warnings are issued by the NWS.

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