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National Weather Service Tropical Storm Isaias Local Advisory: High Winds, Flooding, Tornadoes, Possible Power Outages

Report by Paula Antolini, August 4, 2020, 10:45AM EDT

National Weather Service Tropical Storm Warning: Isaias

Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory, 535 AM EDT, Tuesday, August 4, 2020, Northern Fairfield County.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT

LOCATIONS AFFECTED: Danbury, Ridgefield, Trumbull

WIND / LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind; Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph; Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until early this evening

THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph; The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.

PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force.

PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property should now be complete. The area remains subject to significant wind damage.

ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

STORM SURGE / LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible; Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas; Window of concern: through Wednesday afternoon.

THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground; The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.

 PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground;

 PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect flooding of low-lying roads and property;

 ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to follow the instructions of local officials.

 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding;

FLOODING RAIN / LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect; Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch;

THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain; The flooding rain threat has decreased from the previous assessment.

PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible.

PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.

 ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant; Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuation and rescues; Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and may overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow; Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow; Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridg closures.

TORNADO / LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAS UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes; The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.

PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible tornadoes.

PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the latest tornado situation.

 ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter if a tornado warning is issued.

 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited; The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events; A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions; Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

    – https://portal.ct.gov/DEMHS

    – https://weather.gov/nyc

    – https://ready.gov/hurricanes

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Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 720 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2020

TORNADO WATCH 416 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE: FAIRFIELD, MIDDLESEX, NEW HAVEN, NEW LONDON

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Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory, National Weather Service New York NY, 605 AM EDT, Tuesday, Aug 4 2020

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**ISAIAS IS MOVING NORTH OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA**

NEW INFORMATION

CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: None

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern; Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union.

STORM INFORMATION: About 360 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about 450 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY 36.3N 77.5W; Storm Intensity 70 mph; Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 28 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW:

Tropical Storm Isaias, located in inland Virginia, will continued to move to north-northeast this morning along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Isaias will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast today, likely moving over our area this afternoon and evening. However, confidence continues to increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and impacts.

The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and dangerous rip currents. Additionally, a few tornadoes are possible.

Locally heavy rainfall is expected with a widespread 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley this morning through this evening, and eastern sections this afternoon into tonight. The strongest winds are likely to occur across New York City Metro, Long Island, northeast New Jersey, southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and southeast Connecticut.

Dangerous marine conditions are likely across all of the coastal waters today and tonight. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected to continue along the ocean beaches today through Wednesday.

The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish quickly from southwest to northeast across the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across New Jersey, New York City, the Lower Hudson Valley, and portions of southeastern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:

    – Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.

    – Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.

    – In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.

    – Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include:

    – Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.

    – Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over.

    – Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.

    – Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines

SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in this area include:

    – Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.

    – Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road.

    – Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainl in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip currents.

    – Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. Elsewhere across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, little to no impact is anticipated.

TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:

    – The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.

    – A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.

    – Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don`t Drown!

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge prone area, you could find yourself cut off by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high winds, such as near large trees, a mobile home, upper floors of a high rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options.

Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

– For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov

– For information on creating an emergency plan see: http://getagameplan.org

– For additional disaster preparedness information see: http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in New York NY around 12 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook, National Weather Service New York NY, 4:46 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT…

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

DAY ONE…Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

   Flash Flood Watch.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

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Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch. National Weather Service New York NY, 433 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS…Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT…

The Flash Flood Watch continues for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield and Northern New Haven.

In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Queens, and Southern Westchester.

Through late tonight; Tropical Storm Isaias will track through the area today.

A total of 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible with locally higher amounts of up to 5 inches. Torrential downpours with multiple rounds of heavy showers will allow for excessive runoff and therefore would cause flash flooding in low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Some rivers and streams across the path of the heavier rainfall axis could experience minor to moderate rises resulting in possible road closures and inundation of structures near the streams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.

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DETAILED FORCAST:

Today

Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight

Tropical storm conditions possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 61. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light north wind.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 81.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 82.

Saturday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly clloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 85.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 66.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

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