Springfield, MO — As Thanksgiving approaches, travellers across Missouri are preparing for one of the busiest holiday weeks of the year — and as always, the state’s famously unpredictable weather is a major topic of conversation.
Early projections indicate that this year’s holiday may bring warmer temperatures, increased chances for precipitation, and even a potential storm system affecting travel ahead of the big day.
Missouri Forecast: Warmer Temperatures Likely
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), most of Missouri faces a 60–70% chance of experiencing above-average temperatures during the Thanksgiving period. While that may bring mild, comfortable conditions for gatherings, there’s also a 50–60% chance of higher-than-normal precipitation, leaving the possibility of rain squarely on the table.
With weather fluctuating quickly across the state, Missourians may still wonder: will it feel like fall — or like winter arrived early? For now, projections lean toward a warmer-than-usual Thanksgiving.
AccuWeather: Pre-Thanksgiving Storm Could Disrupt Travel
Meteorologists at AccuWeather are cautioning travelers about a storm system expected on Tuesday, the day before Thanksgiving — one of the heaviest travel days of the year. This storm could bring drenching rainfall, isolated severe thunderstorms, and travel hazards, especially across southeast Missouri, which is at the highest risk for disruptive weather.
AccuWeather warns that travelers driving or flying on Tuesday should be prepared for:
- Heavy rain
- Thunderstorms
- Reduced visibility
- Potential delays across Midwest travel hubs
While the holiday itself may trend warm, this early-week storm could set the tone for a challenging start to Thanksgiving travel.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Expect “Unseasonably Warm” Conditions
The Old Farmer’s Almanac echoes predictions of warmer conditions, forecasting “unseasonably warm” weather across the Heartland region, including Missouri. According to their projections:
- Most travelers will see good weather for the bulk of Thanksgiving week.
- Rain later in the week remains a possibility.
- Driving conditions should be mostly favorable, but flexible travel plans are recommended.
Their long-range outlook supports the trend: a mild Thanksgiving week with occasional rain, but no major cold snaps expected.
AAA: Record-Breaking Travel Expected for 2025 Holiday Week
The weather outlook is only one part of the story — the other is the volume of travelers. AAA predicts that nearly 82 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home during the Thanksgiving travel period, running from Tuesday, Nov. 25 through Monday, Dec. 1.
“This year’s domestic travel forecast includes an additional 1.6 million travelers compared to last Thanksgiving, setting a new overall record. Thanksgiving is the single busiest holiday for travel.”
With more people on the road and in the air than ever before, even minor weather issues could have a magnified impact on holiday plans.
What Missouri Travelers Should Keep in Mind
With warmer weather ahead but increased chances for rain and a Tuesday storm system, travelers should:
- Monitor updated forecasts from NWS and AccuWeather
- Consider adjusting travel timing to avoid Tuesday’s storm
- Prepare for possible flight delays
- Keep flexible backup plans
- Drive cautiously through wet or stormy conditions
While Thanksgiving Day itself may be pleasant, the days leading up to it could be messy for parts of Missouri — especially the southeast.
Are you traveling this Thanksgiving? Do you think the weather will affect your plans? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
