Salt Lake City, UT – With Christmas just days away, residents across Utah and the rest of the country are closely watching the forecast to see whether the holiday will arrive with a classic white Christmas. Meteorologists say snow chances vary widely by region this year, with elevation, temperature trends, and late-season storm tracks all playing a role.
What Is Considered a “White Christmas”?
Meteorologists define a white Christmas as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Importantly, it does not matter whether snow is actively falling on December 25.
“It’s snow cover, not falling snow, that counts,” according to the Weather Channel.
Historical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that, on average, only about 38% of the contiguous United States typically has at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
Western U.S. Has the Best Odds for Snow
Forecasters say the West remains the most reliable region for a white Christmas, particularly in mountainous areas.
According to USA Today, a white Christmas is nearly guaranteed in parts of the central and northern Rocky Mountains. This includes higher elevations of Wyoming, Montana, Utah, and Colorado, where snowpack tends to linger even during milder winters.
Weather experts note that areas just outside the mountains still have a 40% to 75% chance of snow on the ground, based on projections from AccuWeather.
Additionally, the Cascade Range in the Pacific Northwest and the Sierra Nevada mountains in California are also expected to see snow-covered ground on Christmas morning.
While some of these regions started the winter season with a below-average snowpack, forecasters say additional snowfall is expected around Christmas, especially in ski resort areas.
Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast Outlook
In the central and eastern United States, snow chances become more unpredictable.
Meteorologists say regions downwind of the Great Lakes and areas near the Canadian border remain strong contenders for a white Christmas. These regions often experience lake-effect snow, which can quickly build up snow cover.
“Typical lake-effect snowbelts should be high on the list for snow on the ground Christmas morning,” according to AccuWeather.
Higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains, particularly in New England, also have a solid chance of snow remaining in place through the holiday.
However, not all traditionally snowy areas are expected to cooperate this year.
Warmer Temperatures Could Melt Snow Before Christmas
Despite recent cold snaps and snowstorms across parts of the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic, forecasters warn that a warming trend could reduce white Christmas chances.
A warmup building across the Plains is expected to push eastward in the days leading up to Christmas. This rise in temperatures could melt existing snowpack, leaving some regions green instead of white.
That said, AccuWeather notes there is still a possibility of a late-season winter storm moving through the central and eastern U.S. just before Christmas. While not guaranteed, such a storm could bring last-minute snowfall to some areas.
What Utah Can Expect Before Christmas
In Utah, weather conditions remain relatively mild for late December, especially along the Wasatch Front.
According to KSL, daytime highs are expected to stay in the 50s, with overnight lows hovering in the 40s over the next week. These warmer temperatures reduce the likelihood of valley snow sticking around through Christmas morning.
However, a low-pressure system from the Pacific Coast is forecast to move into the region on Wednesday, bringing snow to higher elevations across the Wasatch Mountains and northern Utah.
Scattered rain showers are possible in valley areas along the Wasatch Front, followed by additional mountain snow and valley rain on Thursday. Forecasters also warn of strong winds developing midweek and lasting into the weekend.
While no major winter storms are expected, the Wasatch Mountains could receive 4 to 8 inches of snow by the end of Thursday. Some areas of the Wasatch Back may see snow, but rain is still more likely at lower elevations.
Another round of mountain snow and valley rain is forecast for the weekend leading into Christmas.
Will Utah Have a White Christmas?
For most valley locations, a white Christmas appears unlikely this year due to warm temperatures. However, ski resorts and higher elevations in Utah remain strong candidates for snow-covered ground on Christmas morning.
Meteorologists say conditions can still change quickly, but for now, mountain communities stand the best chance of waking up to a white holiday.
Do you hope for a white Christmas, or do you prefer warmer holiday weather? Are you planning to head to the mountains for snow this year? Share your thoughts in the comments and join the conversation.
